Executive Summary:
The SHF, SRS, and STBG payments in FY 2023 are estimated to increase by $11.8 million over our estimates for FY 2022.
- FY 2023 SHF estimate increased by over $6.8 million (+2%).
- FY 2023 SRS estimate is set at 2017 levels by the IIJA.
- FY 2023 STBG estimate increased by $5 million (+31%).
Please see the attached County Road Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Year July 1, 2022 – June 30, 2023 (County FY 2023).
State Highway Fund (SHF): County revenues are projected to increase in 2022 through 2023 as the economy recovers and the $0.02 conditional fuels tax, weight-mile tax, and 3% increases in DMV title and registration fees included in Keep Oregon Moving (HB 2017) took effect January 1, 2022.
Growth is strong in motor fuels, DMV and CCD revenue. The forecast, which uses the estimates released in October of 2021, includes both the regular formula allocation and the Small County Allotment. See the SHF sheet for a breakout of the two separate payments.
- FY 2023 SHF estimate increased by over $6.8 million (+2%)
Secure Rural Schools: The SRS Act payments for Federal FY 2022 are included in the county totals because Congress has taken action to reauthorize the program through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). SRS Payments are authorized for the next three fiscal years and will not be subject to the typical 5% annual decrease. Instead, SRS payments will be increased to the amount from Federal FY 2017 for FY 2021, FY 2022, and FY 2023.
SRS Payments are divided between Title I, II, and III, with Title I providing funding for roads. Counties can elect allocations of SRS funding between Title I, II, and III. The reauthorization in 2021 did not provide counties the opportunity to elect allocations, SRS has a default allocation between Titles I and II if elections are not made. FY 21 default payment allocations will be 80% to Title I and 20% to Title II. No payments will be made for Title III activities. Congress is currently working with the administration on a potential fix that would lock in 2013 elections for titles I, II and III (same as all reauthorizations since 2013), and allow for new elections for FY 22 and 23 payments.
- FY 2023 SRS estimate increased by over $8.4 million (+27%) compared to FY 2021.
USFS Timber Receipts: The USFS estimates are based on 25% timber receipts (1908 Act 25-percent payments) from Federal Fiscal Year 2018 (County Fiscal Year 2019), which is the most recent data released by the Forest Service. Please remember that counties only receive USFS receipts if a county selects not to receive SRS payments, In most cases, this would represent the minimum budget option.
Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) / State Fund Exchange: STBG estimates have increased 31% from our last estimate in November. With the passage of the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA) formula funding for the STBG is projected to increase by approximately $5 million or 31% over FAST Act levels beginning in Federal Fiscal Year 2022 (2023 County payment year).
- FY 2023 STBG estimate increased by $5 million (+31%).
Forecasting Uncertainty and FY 2022-23 Outlook: This FY 2022-23 forecast represents a conservative baseline county funding model estimate approach for dedicated funding budget planning purposes.
FY 2022 – 2023 County Road Revenue Forecast (xlsx)
FY 2022 – 2023 County Road Revenue Forecast (PDF)
Please don’t hesitate to contact Jordan Cole, jcole@oregoncounties.org with any questions or concerns.