Executive Summary: The SHF, SRS, and STBG payments in FY 2024 are estimated to increase by $7.4 million (+2%) over our previous estimates for FY 2023.
- FY 2024 SHF estimate Increased by $9.2 million (+3%) to $355.6 million.
- FY 2024 SRS estimate stayed the same (+0%) at $33.9 million.
- FY 2024 STBG estimate Decreased by 1.7 million (-8%) to $19.2 million.
Please Click here for the County Road Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Year July 1, 2023 – June 30, 2024 (County FY 2024).
State Highway Fund (SHF): SHF revenues are projected to increase by $9.2 million (+3%) over October’s final update for FY 2023 as the Oregon Department of Transportation (ODOT) has recalculated their estimate using updated metrics as motor fuels tax revenues declined.
Motor fuels tax revenue is estimated using fuel prices, passenger vehicle stock, and fuel efficiency. Higher rates are leading to less spending and a weaker weight-mile forecast but a stronger DMV outlook helps to balance this out. Additionally fuel efficiency is projected to rise, which reduces fuel consumption and motor fuels tax revenues.
- FY 2024 SHF estimate Increased by $9.2 million (3%)
Secure Rural Schools: The SRS Act payments for Federal FY 2023 County FY 2024 are included in the county totals because Congress has taken action to reauthorize the program through the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act (IIJA). SRS Payments are authorized for the next county fiscal year and will not be subject to the typical 5% annual decrease. Instead, SRS payments will remain at the amount from Federal FY 2017 for FY 2021, FY 2022, and FY 2023.
SRS Payments are divided between Title I, II, and III, with Title I providing funding for roads. All Oregon counties completed their election allocations between Title I, II, and III by the deadline on September 30, 2022. Thank you for working with your Board of Commissioners to complete this process.
- FY 2024 SRS stayed the same (+0%).
USFS Timber Receipts: The USFS estimates are based on 25% timber receipts (1908 Act 25-percent payments) from Federal Fiscal Year 2018 (County Fiscal Year 2019), which is the most recent data released by the Forest Service. Please remember that counties only receive USFS receipts if a county selects not to receive SRS payments, In most cases, this would represent the minimum budget option.
Counties can elect to receive USFS timber harvest receipts or SRS payments every two years. The next deadline for electing to receive SRS / USFS timber harvest receipts is August 1, 2023 and every odd year thereafter.
Surface Transportation Block Grant (STBG) / State Fund Exchange: STBG revenues are projected to decrease by $1.7 million (-8%) over STBG actuals for FY 2023. However, ODOT has proposed to reduce flexible state fund exchange available for counties in 2023, and possibly eliminate the program in coming years. Under ODOT’s proposal each county would receive $250,000 in state funds, and would then have to choose between taking the remaining funding either as federal dollars, or as HB 2017 state bridge funding. Please see the attached County Road Revenue Forecasts for Fiscal Year July 1, 2023 – June 30, 2024 (County FY 2024) for a detailed breakdown of how ODOT’s proposal would impact revenue for each county.
The Association of Oregon Counties and OACES are engaged in discussions with ODOT and pushing a legislative fix, House Bill 2101, to secure this vital program. Until agreement is reached, ODOT has released the FY 2023 STBG allocation to counties only available as federal funds, no fund exchange program. Details on the Fund Exchange Program will be shared as updates become available. Current program details are available on the Oregon Department of Transportation : Local Government Funding Overview : Local Government : State of Oregon website.
- FY 2024 STBG estimate Decreased by 1.7 million (-8%).
Forecasting Uncertainty and FY 2023-24 Outlook: This FY 2023-24 forecast represents a conservative baseline county funding model estimate approach for dedicated funding budget planning purposes.
Please reach out to Jordan Cole for more information with any questions or concerns.